#9 Lower Inflation, Slower Growth, and Rising Uncertainty
Contrarian Play to shine in 2025
My top position for 2025, Hedge about what could be coming
While I am, and will always be, a micro-investor focused on fundamentally sound small-cap companies, this idea takes a completely different perspective from what you are used to.
As an investor, flexibility is one of the most valuable traits you can develop. We are currently in a challenging market environment:
Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies and their potential impact on the U.S. economy.
Market valuations are high, limiting upside potential in U.S. stocks.
Given this perspective, I am looking for alternative opportunities, as I don’t see much upside in U.S. equities, nor in other geographies. Yes, Europe’s valuations are much lower than those in the U.S., but several structural headwinds make the investment landscape less attractive:
A slowing European economy and lack of innovation compared to other regions.
Uncertainty around Trump’s trade policies and their potential negative impact on Europe’s economic ecosystem.
For these reasons, I don’t expect Europe to thrive in the near term. Instead, I find Japan particularly interesting, as growth appears to be returning after a prolonged period of deflation and stagnation. While I may cover some Japanese companies in future articles, this time, my focus is on other types of assets.
This February article is intended to offer a fresh perspective on the markets and encourage investors to explore opportunities beyond traditional asset classes, and to be clear, I’m not referring to crypto.
Let’s dive in.