I typically don't make price predictions, as it largely depends on the company's performance. If things go as anticipated, it has the potential to be a multi-bagger. However, I'll be closely monitoring its quarterly results to assess progress.
If the business meets expectations, I'll likely hold the position through the full cycle. However, if it underperforms, I may decide to exit the investment sooner.
Enjoyed the writeup! Keep in mind that the shift to profitability isn’t via EBITDA, but adjusted EBITDA. Accounting for the SBC, they’d still have -EBITDA.
Yes, I’m aware of that. While EBITDA is still negative, the fact that adjusted EBITDA (including stock-based compensation) is positive significantly reduces the risks of dilution or bankruptcy, as the company is no longer burning cash even with the use of SBC. Given the growth trajectory outlined in the write-up, I believe the use of SBC in this case is strategic and appropriate. Although it represents a real cost, I don’t find it concerning in this particular situation.
I have my skepticism for the flat fee model. This has worked in other industries like stock brokerages, because the reduced brokerage commission (as a percent of transaction or even no fees as Robinhood) is made up for by increased volume and other sources of revenue. Given that 90% of their revenue comes from brokerage commissions, do you think this model will succeed given that volumes don't scale up proportionally to compensate for reduced commissions?
I can’t say for certain whether this model will succeed in the long term, but what is undeniable today is that it’s gaining market share, experiencing significant agent growth, and driving higher volumes compared to traditional brokerage. That said, real estate brokerage is a tough business, and I don’t intend to hold this company indefinitely. It’s more of a cyclical medium term play, combined with an extremely low valuation.
I typically don't make price predictions, as it largely depends on the company's performance. If things go as anticipated, it has the potential to be a multi-bagger. However, I'll be closely monitoring its quarterly results to assess progress.
If the business meets expectations, I'll likely hold the position through the full cycle. However, if it underperforms, I may decide to exit the investment sooner.
Enjoyed the writeup! Keep in mind that the shift to profitability isn’t via EBITDA, but adjusted EBITDA. Accounting for the SBC, they’d still have -EBITDA.
Hey! First of all, thanks for your comment!
Yes, I’m aware of that. While EBITDA is still negative, the fact that adjusted EBITDA (including stock-based compensation) is positive significantly reduces the risks of dilution or bankruptcy, as the company is no longer burning cash even with the use of SBC. Given the growth trajectory outlined in the write-up, I believe the use of SBC in this case is strategic and appropriate. Although it represents a real cost, I don’t find it concerning in this particular situation.
I have my skepticism for the flat fee model. This has worked in other industries like stock brokerages, because the reduced brokerage commission (as a percent of transaction or even no fees as Robinhood) is made up for by increased volume and other sources of revenue. Given that 90% of their revenue comes from brokerage commissions, do you think this model will succeed given that volumes don't scale up proportionally to compensate for reduced commissions?
I can’t say for certain whether this model will succeed in the long term, but what is undeniable today is that it’s gaining market share, experiencing significant agent growth, and driving higher volumes compared to traditional brokerage. That said, real estate brokerage is a tough business, and I don’t intend to hold this company indefinitely. It’s more of a cyclical medium term play, combined with an extremely low valuation.
What a fair price do you think its posible in this case, considering FED cut rates?